PRLog (Press Release)– Jun 24, 2011– The latest Philippines Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.26% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.55% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average of 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
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In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. The Philippines' share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 0.86%, while its share of production is put at 1.08%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.87%, with the country accounting for 0.95% of supply.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, implying Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.
The Philippines' real GDP growth in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been buick 7.3%, with an average annual increase of 5.3% expected in 2010-2015. audi There is international oil company (IOC) and national involvement in domestic upstream activities, leading to substantial gas output growth and some modest liquids expansion. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of around 45,000b/d by 2015, with the country having pumped an estimated 32,500b/d in 2010. Beyond 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2015, implying end-period demand of 374,000b/d. The import requirement would therefore corsa be about 328,300b/d by 2015. Gas demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 4.4bcm in 2010 to 5.7bcm by 2015, with low-level imports required by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a rise in the Philippines' oil production of 7.8%, with crude volumes peaking at 50,000b/d in 2013 before falling steadily to 35,250b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 34%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 427,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from around 4.4bcm in 2010 to a possible 8bcm by 2019/20. With demand growth of 82%, this will require up to 1bcm of imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and countryspecific projections, can be found later in this report.
The Philippines is now at sixth place in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country ranks sixth, just ahead of Pakistan, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting a reasonable resource position and a better-than-average output growth outlook. The Philippines ranks 11th, between Vietnam and Hong Kong, in our downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting the modest refinery capacity expansion plans, reasonable oil and gas demand growth outlook and relatively low level of retail site intensity.
Partial Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis - Philippines Political SWOT - Philippines Economic SWOT - Philippines Business Environment SWOT Philippines Energy Market Overview Regional Energy Market Overview - Oil Supply And Demand - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) - Oil: Downstream - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) - Gas Supply And Demand - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) - Liquefied Natural Gas - Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) Business Environment Ratings - Asia Pacific Region - Composite Scores - Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating - Upstream Scores - Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating - Philippines Upstream Rating - Overview - Philippines Upstream Rating - Rewards - Philippines Upstream Rating - Risks - Downstream Scores - Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating - Philippines Downstream Rating - Overview - Philippines Downstream Rating - Rewards - Philippines Downstream Rating - Risks Business Environment - Legal Framework - Infrastructure - Labour Force - Foreign Investment Policy - Tax Regime - Security Risk Industry Forecast Scenario - Oil And Gas Reserves - Oil Supply And Demand - Gas Supply And Demand - LNG - Refining And Oil Products Trade - Revenues/Import Costs - Table: Philippines Oil And Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 - Other Energy - Table: Philippines Other Energy - Historical Data And Forecasts - Key Risks To Forecast Scenario - Long-Term Energy Outlook Oil And Gas Infrastructure - Oil Refineries - Table: Refineries in the Philippines - Oil Storage Facilities - Service Stations - Oil Terminals/Ports - LNG Terminals - Gas Pipelines Macroeconomic Outlook - Table: Philippines - Economic Activity Competitive Landscape - Executive Summary - Table: Key Players - Philippines Oil And Gas Sector - Overview/State Role - Licensing And Regulation - Government Policy - Licensing Rounds - International Energy Relations - Table: Key Upstream Players
Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=171 ...
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial 1086274749 market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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